So the bulls are trying to add to yesterday’s massive short squeeze, something we have NOT seen in a very since July 25th-2 up days in a row. Can they pull it off? I think they have a chance, but don’t be surprised if we close green but it feels like a red day. Meaning they may try and make a run higher in early trading, but with the bulls charging across the field on crutches and limbs missing, I am not so sure the bears are all that scared, as they lie on their backs waiting for them to finally arrive.
The ES is +14 as I type and testing yesterday’s highs. I can see them actually taking out yesterday’s highs and trying for the 1192 (ES) SPY 119.21 pivot. If you see that, YOU CAN GET A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE SHORT SIDE!!!! I see the SPY heading down to the 114.75 from those levels. But I really do NOT think the bulls have the brass @%&&*’s to charge up that high. They know if there are 100 of them charging for that pivot, only 5 are coming back alive.
The European markets are following our 2008 roadmap, as they saw how well that worked for us, as they ban on the big bad bears from short selling their banks. Ftffffthsh (bottle rocket going off) craaassshhhhhhh that is their markets crashing to the ground once the bulls say thank you, I want out here. They believe they are doing something constructive, but in fact they are removing the netting from the tight rope walker, as they are removing the buyers (shorts covering) when the banks start getting bank runs-which they will. But nothing to worry about here, that that is there and our JULY retail numbers came in better than expected J
Some of my data is a little conflicting, which is hinting that the expected pull back will most likely be bought and the high put in will most likely be tested and probably taken out at some point in the coming days. So I am thinking the volatility will still be here and we have to continue to be quick with our trades right now. I may not have a problem buying the next dip, as we could still see them try and rally the spx to the 1220/1250 area over the next week or so. But we have a turn date on the 15th and a hidden turn date on the 16th. So if they do hold the indexes higher today, Monday may be the date when the bears say, ok, I have seen enough of this and swat the bulls back down. You may be able to day trade the long side today, but I would be looking to build a short term (2-3 days or more) short position for a larger move down from the highs.
For TF, watch the 712 level if it takes out yesterday’s highs. The pattern in play is pointing down to the 660 level and it will be flashing a 60 minute sell signal. Bottom line: We have the most complacent market fear gage reading since the 2009 rally started, our 60 minute timing system is showing sell signals as well as the 60 minute charts of both the ES/TF. Be careful jumping on the bull band wagon here, I see a pretty nasty fall coming very soon. G-
