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Is this a Breakout or a Break dance?

Post: 01/10/12 by Gary Dean 9:15

Well, we couldn't of asked for a better open than what we got today as a bear. You are probably thinking I have lost my mind-you may be right, but let me explain. I gave you a peak at our "removing stress from your trades" approach last night.

I was telling the truth, we closed our short positions on 1/9/12 at the exact lows and were cash heading into today. So yes, today was EXACTLY what we wanted as a bear-and cash. A gap open to start shorting again!!

Many newsletters are now calling today's move a breakout. It may be, but I am looking at it more as a break dance.

If you can imagine a break dancer spinning on his head, that is the exact way I am looking at this. The bulls have stamped 3 other times a "break out" and the new leg up has started and all 3 times they have seen that breakout fail. I do not believe this one will be different.

What makes this "Breakout" even more dangerous than the others, is it is now showing bearish divergences on the daily charts. Not even the most creative wave counter in the world can come up with an impulsive 5 waves up from the October lows.

Unless the bulls can blast through the May highs (which I do NOT think they can) it will HAVE to be looked at as a corrective move from the October lows A-B-C, which now has bearish divergences on the longer term charts-and looks like wave (2) or (B) is just about to finish and the next target will be below the October lows. We may not turn right here or right now, but I would be very careful trading this "breakout"

When looking at our timing charts, the picture get even clearer as far as whether this breakout will be the real deal or not. But that is for our paying members.


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